Monte Carlo simulator
Replay your win rate and risk-reward thousands of times in random order, and see how wide the range of outcomes is: ending balance, drawdown, losing streaks, risk of ruin and the odds of passing a prop firm challenge. It runs in your browser and nothing leaves it.
Your numbers
Fixed dollar amount, no compounding.
Up to 500.
Up to 5,000.
Ruined = balance falls this far below the start at any point.
Same seed and numbers, same result. Share it to share the run.
Median ending balance
$58,750
Half of the 1,000 runs ended above this after 100 trades. The middle 90% ended between $52,750 and $64,750.
- Ended below the start
- 0.4%
- Risk of ruin, down 20% or more
- 0%
- Max drawdown, median
- $2,000
- Max drawdown, 95th percentile
- $3,500
- Longest losing streak, median
- 7 trades
- Longest losing streak, 95th percentile
- 10 trades
- Expected value per trade
- $88 · +0.35 R
- Average ending balance
- $58,779
Simulation based on your inputs, not a forecast. Seed 20261028.
Balance after each trade, 1,000 simulated runs
Each of the 1,000 runs is one possible order of your wins and losses. The bands show where 50% and 90% of them were after each trade.
How to read the chart
The median line
Half of the runs are above it after each trade, half below. It is the typical path, not a promise for yours.
The two bands
The inner band holds the middle 50% of runs, the outer band the middle 90%. A wide band means luck matters more than the edge over this many trades.
The thin lines
Twelve single runs. Each is one possible order of the same wins and losses, which is why they look so different.
The model and its limits
every trade wins with probability p, a fixed amount W
or loses a fixed amount L
expected value per trade = p × W − (1 − p) × L
max drawdown of a run = largest drop from a balance high to a later low
Trades are independent, amounts are fixed and nothing compounds. Fees, slippage, partial exits and changes in your win rate are not in it. Percentiles are read across all runs after each trade, so the bands are not single runs. The random numbers come from a seeded generator, so the same seed and inputs always return the same result.
A simulation is only as good as its inputs. Win rate and average win and loss measured on a small number of trades are themselves uncertain, so try a range of values rather than one.
More free calculators
Questions about Monte Carlo simulation
What is a Monte Carlo simulation for trading?
It replays your strategy many times in a different random order of wins and losses each time. With a 45% win rate, every run draws each trade as a win with a 45% chance. Thousands of runs show the range of outcomes your numbers allow, not just the average.
Why does the same win rate give such different equity curves?
Because the order of wins and losses is luck. Two traders with identical statistics can finish a hundred trades far apart, or sit through very different drawdowns. The fan chart shows how wide that spread is for the numbers you entered.
What is risk of ruin?
Here it is the share of simulated runs in which the balance fell by your chosen percentage of the starting balance at any point, even if it recovered later. At a 20% threshold on a $50,000 account, a run counts as ruined once it touches $40,000.
How is the chance to pass a prop firm challenge calculated?
Each run is checked trade by trade with the same drawdown logic as the drawdown calculator. A run passes if it reaches the profit target before touching the loss limit, and fails if it touches the limit first. Runs that do neither within your number of trades are shown as open.
How many simulations do I need?
A thousand runs give stable middle values. The extreme ends, like the 95th percentile drawdown, move a little between seeds. Use 5,000 to firm them up, and keep the same seed to compare two sets of inputs on identical random draws.
Can a simulation tell me how my strategy will perform?
No. It does arithmetic on the numbers you type in and assumes your win rate and average win and loss stay fixed and independent from trade to trade. Real markets change, and real trades vary in size. Treat the output as a way to size risk and set expectations, not as a forecast.
For educational purposes, not financial advice. A simulation based on your inputs, not a forecast, and not a promise of future results. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss.