Win rate calculator
How much a trade is worth on average at your win rate and risk-reward ratio, and which win rate you need to break even. The result updates as you type and nothing leaves your browser.
Your numbers
Leave empty to see the result in R only.
Expectancy per trade
+0.35 R
Positive: on average each trade adds 0.35 of the amount you risk.
- Break-even win rate
- 33.3%
- Above break-even
- +11.7 pts
- Per trade in dollars
- +$70.00
- Over 100 trades
- +$7,000.00
An average, not a forecast: with 100 trades the real result can land far from it. Assumes every win is 2R and every loss is 1R, before fees.
Your real win rate, not a guess. PFT-EdgeBook imports your trades from ATAS, NinjaTrader and Sierra Chart and calculates win rate and R-multiple from them, plus MAE and MFE for trades recorded live through the platform bridge. The journal is free.
See PFT-EdgeBookRisk-reward ratio calculator
Enter entry, stop and target. Long or short follows from where the stop sits: below the entry is long, above is short.
Risk-reward ratio · long
1 : 2.5
- Risk (entry to stop)
- 10
- Reward (entry to target)
- 25
- Break-even win rate
- 28.6%
- Win rate entered above
- 45%
Win rate and risk-reward table
Expected R per trade for each combination. Above zero the combination makes money on average, below zero it loses. Tap a cell to load it into the calculator.
| Win rate | 1:0.5 | 1:1 | 1:1.5 | 1:2 | 1:3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | |||||
| 40% | |||||
| 50% | |||||
| 60% | |||||
| 70% |
The formulas
expectancy (R) = win rate × reward − (1 − win rate) × 1
break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + reward)
risk-reward = |target − entry| ÷ |entry − stop|
R is the amount you risk on one trade. A 1:2 trade wins 2R or loses 1R. The model assumes full wins and full losses only; break-even exits, partial profits and fees are not in it.
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Questions about win rate and risk-reward
What win rate do I need to be profitable?
It depends on your risk-reward ratio. The break-even win rate is 1 divided by (1 + reward per unit of risk). At 1:1 you need more than 50%, at 1:2 more than 33.3%, at 1:3 more than 25%. Fees push the real break-even a little higher.
How do I calculate expectancy?
Expectancy in R is win rate times the average win in R, minus loss rate times the average loss in R. With a 45% win rate and 1:2, that is 0.45 × 2 − 0.55 × 1 = +0.35R per trade. Multiply by your dollar risk per trade to get dollars.
How do I calculate the risk-reward ratio?
Divide the distance from entry to target by the distance from entry to stop. A long at 6000 with a stop at 5990 and a target at 6025 risks 10 points to make 25, a ratio of 1:2.5.
Is a high win rate or a high risk-reward ratio better?
Neither on its own. A 70% win rate at 1:0.5 has an expectancy of +0.05R, a 35% win rate at 1:3 has +0.40R. What counts is the combination, and whether your real trades match the numbers you plan with.
Why does my real result differ from the expectancy?
Expectancy is an average. Over a small number of trades the result scatters widely around it, and real trades rarely hit exactly 1R losses and fixed targets. Partial exits, moved stops and fees all change the numbers, which is why measuring them from your own trades matters.
For educational purposes, not financial advice. Expectancy is an average from the numbers you enter, not a promise of future results. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss.